Posts

Putting Stock in an Elephant or Donkey

Following last week’s historic election, many investors are probably wondering if their obliterated 401(k)s will take a turn for the better under Barack Obama. Is your stock portfolio really better off with a Republican or Democrat in the White House? Well, frankly, trying to determine the differences between the parties using stock market data is folly…but let’s do it anyway.
 
According to a recent New York Times graphic, if you had to invest exclusively under either Democratic or Republican administrations, here’s what the results would have been.  For the sake of fairness, Herbert Hoover’s presidency under The Great Depression has been excluded.
 
In nearly four decades, a $10,000 investment in the S&P stock market index would have grown to $51,211 under Republicans. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent during the same time period.
 
Four Republicans with solid gains include George H.W. Bush, who wins out with the best average annualized return – excluding dividends – of 11%, followed by Dwight D. Eisenhower (10.9%), Gerald Ford (10.8%) and Ronald Reagan (10.2%). The Republican bell curve was weighed down by the Richard Nixon years (-3.9%) and, of course, President George W. Bush, whose number stood at -5.1% as of mid-October. Barring huge gains over the next few weeks, Bush’s number will be the worst since Hoover, a whopping -30.8%.
 
Bill Clinton’s term was the only double-digit gain among the Democrats, finishing with an average annualized return of 15.5%. The rest of the Democrats – Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson and Jimmy Carter – ranged from 6.5% to 8.2%.
 
Whether you’re running with the Elephants or the Donkeys, I’m certain both parties would agree that a bull run would be nice during the next presidency.

 

Ron Neal, Senior Associate, rneal@pondel.com